Introduction

In one of our prior studies, we discussed if some days of the week (Mondays through to Fridays) and calendar days of the month (1, 2, 3,...,31) were better for taking long (or short) trades than others. What we next did to test this was to sum up all the returns for each day of the week over the entire period we had data for and see whether the positive or negative returns added up more. The winner then informed us that for each FOREX pair or CDF instrument we considered, a particular day of the week and month was best for longs than for shorts and vice versa.

We take this study further by checking if we could narrow down our results by selecting some weeks of the year to carry our these studies on. We also included the hit ratios for taking these trades. We present the results in the following paragraphs.

Weeks in a year

In 1582, a calendar was introduced to the western world known as the Gregorian calendar (named after Pope Gregory XIII who commissioned it and was more of a minor modification of the Julian calendar which was in use prior and had some issues). A normal year in this calendar has about 365.25 days, which, when divided by the number of days in a week or 7 (got from 1. Monday, 2. Tuesday, 3. Wednesday, 4. Thursday, 5. Friday, 6. Saturday, 7. Sunday) equals 52.17857142857143 weeks in a year. On average we get mostly 52 weeks in a year or 53 weeks.

Best week of the year

Now we go into the details of the results of our study. What we did was to group our data (from 2010 to 2021) by the weeks of the year and the days of the week then sum up the resulting returns and see if the negative or the positive returns come up tops for each category. We also find the ratio of longs vs shorts for each catergory too just to find the hit rate.

The results are presented below.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.545455 0.636364 0.454545 0.636364 0.363636
Bear 0.454545 0.363636 0.545455 0.363636 0.636364
(image by Author)

We are conducting this study on the 47th week of the year 2021, and we are looking at data on this week from 2010 to 2020 while reflecting on how ot could affect our trades in this week.

From the chart above, we can see that this weeks has had more of negative returns historically. However, the ratio chart below the image tells a slightly different story. For a day like Tuesday, though the hit rate for longs are higher than that for shorts, the negative returns added up more for the shorts.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.714286 0.571429 0.428571 0.714286 0.857143
Bear 0.285714 0.428571 0.571429 0.285714 0.142857
(image by Author)

What we can see above is the fact that on a Thursday, the GER30 had more hits for longs (about $71 \%$) but the total returns all summed up for the period of our study is abysmal at best. For Tuesday, even though the hit rate for longs is a mere $57 \%$, the cumulative returns were good.

Conclusion

If I will use this study, my intention is to choose the hit rate and cummultive return that I am confortable with. For instance, on the EURUSD chart we saw, I would love to test out Fridays of the 47th week because the cumulative returns are good and so are the hit rates as they both point at the same direction (shorts).

Does that mean that this Friday the EURUSD is going to close Short? I do not know! Especially as I am writing this on Thursday (the 25th of November 2021 on the 47th week of the year) and I will have to wait a day to find out.

This writeup is strictly for educational puposes only. Past performance is not an indication of future performances. Please do conduct your own research and come to your own personal conclusions before committing funds to any trading strategy. Use good risk management.

May the pips be with you!

Appendix 1: Best week of the year to choose the best day of the week to trade on a list of selected FOREX pairs and CFDs

Below are bar charts of the study carried out above on more instruments for your perusal.

My current broker doesn't have enough data for some currency pairs and CFDs like US30 & GBPAUD for me to carry out this study on them so they are not included here.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.545455 0.636364 0.454545 0.636364 0.363636
Bear 0.454545 0.363636 0.545455 0.363636 0.636364
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.363636 0.545455 0.545455 0.272727 0.636364
Bear 0.636364 0.454545 0.454545 0.727273 0.363636
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.454545 0.636364 0.727273 0.454545 0.636364
Bear 0.545455 0.363636 0.272727 0.545455 0.363636
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.545455 0.636364 0.363636 0.272727 0.545455
Bear 0.454545 0.363636 0.636364 0.727273 0.454545
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.714286 0.571429 0.571429 0.571429 0.714286
Bear 0.285714 0.428571 0.428571 0.428571 0.285714
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.428571 0.571429 0.571429 0.571429 0.428571
Bear 0.571429 0.428571 0.428571 0.428571 0.571429
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.285714 0.571429 0.428571 0.428571 0.428571
Bear 0.714286 0.428571 0.571429 0.571429 0.571429
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.571429 0.285714 0.714286 0.857143 0.285714
Bear 0.428571 0.714286 0.285714 0.142857 0.714286
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.636364 0.545455 0.636364 0.454545 0.454545
Bear 0.363636 0.454545 0.363636 0.545455 0.545455
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.285714 0.428571 0.571429 0.714286 0.142857
Bear 0.714286 0.571429 0.428571 0.285714 0.857143
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.285714 0.714286 0.428571 0.428571 0.571429
Bear 0.714286 0.285714 0.571429 0.571429 0.428571
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.545455 0.454545 0.545455 0.454545 0.454545
Bear 0.454545 0.545455 0.454545 0.545455 0.545455
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.454545 0.454545 0.454545 0.454545 0.454545
Bear 0.545455 0.545455 0.545455 0.545455 0.545455
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.571429 0.714286 0.428571 0.571429 0.714286
Bear 0.428571 0.285714 0.571429 0.428571 0.285714
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.285714 0.428571 0.285714 0.285714 0.571429
Bear 0.714286 0.571429 0.714286 0.714286 0.428571
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.857143 0.428571 0.571429 0.428571 0.428571
Bear 0.142857 0.571429 0.428571 0.571429 0.571429
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.857143 0.571429 0.571429 0.571429 0.285714
Bear 0.142857 0.428571 0.428571 0.428571 0.714286
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.285714 0.428571 0.571429 0.571429 0.142857
Bear 0.714286 0.571429 0.428571 0.428571 0.857143
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.363636 0.636364 0.454545 0.454545 0.454545
Bear 0.636364 0.363636 0.545455 0.545455 0.545455
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.428571 0.571429 0.428571 0.857143 0.428571
Bear 0.571429 0.428571 0.571429 0.142857 0.571429
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.571429 0.428571 0.571429 0.428571 0.428571
Bear 0.428571 0.571429 0.428571 0.571429 0.571429
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.857143 0.285714 0.571429 0.428571 0.285714
Bear 0.142857 0.714286 0.428571 0.571429 0.714286
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.454545 0.545455 0.636364 0.636364 0.454545
Bear 0.545455 0.454545 0.363636 0.363636 0.545455
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
Direction
Bull 0.714286 0.571429 0.428571 0.714286 0.857143
Bear 0.285714 0.428571 0.571429 0.285714 0.142857
(images by Author)